A prediction market is a place where people trade on the outcome of a real-world event — an election, a Fed rate decision, whether a bill passes, even the weather. Instead of betting against a bookmaker, traders buy and sell shares in an outcome, and the price of that share reflects what the market collectively thinks the odds are.

If a market for "Will X happen?" is trading YES at 65¢, that roughly means the market believes there's a 65% chance it happens. Buy YES at 65¢ and it resolves true, you get $1 per share — a 35¢ profit. If it resolves false, the share is worth nothing.

The two platforms Oddlytics tracks, Polymarket and Kalshi, differ mainly in structure: Polymarket runs on crypto and lists a huge range of cultural and political questions; Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated exchange with a narrower, more official set of markets. Both work the same way underneath — price reflects collective probability.

Why prices move: new information. A poll drops, a company issues guidance, an official makes a statement — traders update their view, and the price shifts to reflect it. That's the core idea behind Oddlytics' AI Predictor: comparing the current price against an independent estimate of the true probability, and flagging when the gap looks wide enough to be worth a second look.

This is informational analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets carry real risk, and no price or AI estimate is a guarantee of anything.